Tesla (TSLA) appears to be on pace for a record quarter for deliveries led by solid performance in the US, China, and Norway.

At Electrek, we love seeing electric vehicles being deployed in volume, and Tesla is the most exciting company to follow when it comes to that.

The company is currently simultaneously ramping up two new factories – Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. On top of that, it is still increasing capacity at existing plants in California and China.

These factories have enabled Tesla to deliver record numbers of electric vehicles over the last few quarters and increase its lead in the EV market. Last quarter, Tesla delivered a record 405,000 electric vehicles; historically, Tesla’s Q1 deliveries come down for Q4 or are only marginally higher.

Tesla investors are hoping for more in Q1 2023, thanks to the ramp-up in Berlin and Texas, especially the former, where the automaker recently achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y vehicles per week.

But the question is: Can Tesla deliver all those cars to paying customers? Things are looking good in Tesla’s key markets.

In the US, Tesla’s massive price drops have resulted in “unprecedented demand,” as we previously reported. The automaker ran out of new production build slots for the Model Y, its most popular model now, halfway into the quarter.

China, Tesla’s second biggest market, is also looking good this quarter.

The latest registration data shows that Tesla already beat its record for deliveries in the country with 126,000 deliveries with still a week left in the quarter.

Tesla’s total deliveries in the quarter in China should be around 140,000 vehicles.

In Norway, Tesla is also on pace for a record month of March in Norway with already 7,000 deliveries; it will likely end the month with around 10,000 vehicles delivered in the quarter, which is massively impressive for a small country.

The Wall Street consensus for Tesla deliveries worldwide in Q1 2023 is 420,000 vehicles, up about 15,000 units from the previous quarter and up over 100,000 units year-over-year.

Electrek’s Take

Anything over 420,000 units would be very good, in my opinion. Without any growth, it would be around 1.7 million units this year, but obviously, we expect some growth, especially in the second half of the year.

As Musk said, 1.8 million units look very achievable, and two million if everything goes perfectly, which it virtually never does.

Anything over 420,000 units this quarter would have the higher end of that delivery window still in play.