Editor’s note: This has been udpated with the Ravens’ official inactives.
The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers decided to rest starting quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy in Week 18, continuing a trend for the best teams in the NFL.
Over the past six seasons, five of the past six teams to clinch the No. 1 seed prior to the final week of the regular season haven’t played their starting QBs in the regular-season finale. The 2009 New Orleans Saints were the last team to secure the top seed before the final week of the regular season, sit its starting quarterback in the regular-season finale (Drew Brees) and win the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
This leads to the question of what is the bigger risk: Injury or rust? Should teams try to protect their quarterbacks from getting hurt? Or should teams worry about how a long layoff can affect momentum?
“We don’t have a crystal ball that can tell us all the right answers,” said fullback Patrick Ricard, who is one of nine players remaining from the Ravens’ 2019 team that earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed. “You just have to have trust in Lamar that he’s going to have great practices this week, take care of his body and get good work next week. I know he will. I mean, he’s so locked in right now that I don’t think the rust is going to be there.”
Recent NFL history provides no definitive answers. From 2002 through 2022, there have been 21 teams to clinch the No. 1 seed before the final week of the regular season, and the results have essentially been 50-50.
Of the seven teams that sat their starting quarterback in the final week, three reached the Super Bowl and two lost their first postseason game. Of the 10 that pulled their starting quarterback before the second half in the finale, five reached the Super Bowl and five lost their first playoff game.
Four years ago, the Ravens rested Jackson and six starters in the regular-season finale and lost their first playoff game.
“The way we practice ain’t going to be no rust,” Ravens inside linebacker Patrick Queen said. “I know the stories about 2019 and what happened then. But at the end of the day, I think we got guys in this locker room right now that actually care and actually really want to go on this run. So the rust thing, I think that’s totally just a mindset.”
ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley and 49ers reporter Nick Wagoner take a look at the benefits and risks facing two teams that could end up meeting in the Super Bowl or wondering if game rust played a role in early exits.
Players who might sit and why the strategy makes sense
Ravens: The Ravens’ official inactives were: Jackson, receivers Odell Beckham Jr, and Zay Flowers (calf), safety Kyle Hamilton (knee), cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf), linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) and guard Kevin Zeitler (quad/knee). Others who could see a reduced role are: offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, running back Gus Edwards and middle linebacker Roquan Smith.
Baltimore is playing it smart because the team knows what life without Jackson looks like at this time of the year. Jackson didn’t finish the previous two seasons, suffering an ankle injury in 2021 and a sprained knee in 2022. Over that time, the Ravens were 2-8 in December and January, averaging 18.6 points per game.
The priority is keeping Jackson healthy and Super Bowl hopes alive. Baltimore will sit a handful of other starters due to injuries. — Hensley
49ers: Coach Kyle Shanahan said the Niners will sit Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) and defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot) Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams (4:25 p.m., ET, Levi’s Stadium, Fox). The 49ers have some other injured players, including cornerback Ambry Thomas (hand), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle) and safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (quad), who will not play. That means, they likely will have at least the majority of their healthy stars in uniform. It doesn’t, however, mean those guys will play much, if at all.
Shanahan has spent the week emphasizing the importance of not taking two weeks off, which is why most of the Niners’ best players are practicing this week as though they are going to play against Los Angeles.
“Two bye weeks isn’t good for anybody,” Shanahan said. “That’s why this isn’t one.”
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which end Nick Bosa, left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, and cornerback Charvarius Ward play more than a quarter or two.
If there’s a team that can benefit from rest, it’s this one. This is a veteran roster full of players who have made multiple deep postseason runs. And the Niners rattled off six straight wins by an average of 18.8 points per game coming out of their Week 9 bye earlier this season.
“We’re not the type of team that I feel like is one of those ‘We could get rusty’ by taking a week off,” fullback Kyle Juszczyk said. “We came off the bye and won six in a row. So, with this team we always feel like if we have our guys, if we’re healthy and they’re on the field, we’re going to take care of business.” — Wagoner
Why it could be risky
Ravens: The Ravens are putting together the best regular-season run in franchise history, and the fear is that a 19-day layoff between meaningful games (Week 17 to the divisional playoff round) could derail that. During its six-game winning streak, Baltimore has scored the most points per game (33.8) and allowed the fewest (17.7), routing three division leaders in the Jacksonville Jaguars, 49ers and Miami Dolphins. It was just four years ago when the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 seed and rested Jackson along with six other starters. Then, after an extended break, a Baltimore offense that had averaged an NFL-best 33.1 points in the regular season was held to a season-low 12 points in a divisional round loss to the Tennessee Titans. — Hensley
49ers: Much like with the Ravens, the risk here starts with getting too much time off. Shanahan believes much of that can be avoided with a smart but consistent practice plan.
The other issue, as Shanahan is quick to point out, is the potential for injuries to backups who might not be accustomed to expanded workloads. Nobody wants to get a starter hurt, but losing key role players can also be costly.
“Rusty isn’t always about the game,” Shanahan said. “Rusty is about how you treat the week. The game is 3½ hours of what unfolded throughout the week, and you are just going to cut it loose. You’ve got to play accordingly. You’ve got to watch how the game is going and be as smart as you can.”
The Niners won’t play a meaningful game again until Jan. 20 or 21 in the divisional round. One thing that helps is that the Rams have already wrapped up a playoff spot and will also be resting players.
Linebacker Oren Burks is the only player in the San Francisco locker room who has been in this situation before. He played for the Green Bay Packers in 2021 when they wrapped up the top seed before the final week. Those Packers played their starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, in Week 18 for most of the first half against the Detroit Lions before calling it a day.
“You want to keep the momentum rolling, and two weeks off is way too much time,” Burks said. “I feel like everybody has to be in the mindset that we want to keep putting our best foot forward and compete in this next game. It’s all about winning at the end of the day, so it’s like that builds momentum, and we want that momentum going into the playoffs.” — Wagoner