With baseball’s first half already behind us, what better time to look ahead at how some odds have changed and see if we can find an advantage anywhere? Here are five that caught my eye.
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Overs on “bad” teams is usually the most profitable angle on win totals. Books know nobody wants to bet on the Marlins, so they shade the totals so that they can make an extra edge on the inevitable under bets, which leaves the over bets exposed. THE BAT X is projecting 63.9 total wins, giving us some nice leeway. The Marlins are bad, no doubt, but their season to date is most likely a combination of being bad and being unlucky. They opened the year with a 78.5 total — it’s rare for a team’s true talent to drop that much over just a few months. Sure, they’ll be sellers at the deadline, with Jazz Chisholm, Josh Bell and Tanner Scott possibly on the way out, but they project for a combined 2.0 WAR the rest of the way, so even reducing THE BAT X’s win total for that possibility still gives us plenty of wiggle room.
The Angels currently are pacing at 68.2 wins, and that’s with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon missing most of the first half. Health will always be the biggest question mark for the Angels, but we have to account for the possibility that these guys will play a good chunk of the second half. THE BAT X projects 73.3 wins on average, making this a good +EV (positive expected value) bet.
The odds gap between Judge (-330) and Henderson (3-1) is simply too wide. They’re currently separated by just 0.2 WAR and their teams are separated by just one win in the standings. Sure, Judge projects a bit better going forward, is on the better team and has the name value and Yankees brand that will surely sway some voters. But from a pure numbers standpoint, this is close enough where a 630-point gap between them is just too large.
Logan Webb to win NL Cy Young (30-1)
Chris Sale is surely the favorite, but THE BAT X projects Zack Wheeler and Webb in a close race for second place. Sale has a long injury history that could knock him out of contention at any moment, and Webb’s consistency and durability could easily earn him the award in a year without many true aces. The San Francisco Giants are an underdog to make the playoffs, which hurts Webb’s chances, but they do still have a roughly 1-in-5 shot, and we’re being paid out 30-to-1 if Webb happens to win. Those odds are strong enough to make him a +EV bet.
Kevin Gausman over 171.5 strikeouts (-130)
Gausman currently has his worst K% in six years, but he is still on pace for 175 strikeouts. Yes, we have to allow for the chance of injury, but we also have to allow for the chance of positive regression, especially given his recent improvements. Prior to his July 5 start, Gausman’s Stuff+ (physical characteristics of a pitch, including, but not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement and spin rate) was just 96 — a huge drop from his previous levels of 105 in 2023 and 108 in 2022. With altered his mechanics, however, Gausman posted a 109 Stuff+ in that July 5 start. It fell again in his final start before the All-Star break, but there is plenty of upside here if he can stay healthy.