There is evidence Israel could be establishing infrastructure in Gaza signalling plans for a long-term military presence in the Strip.
Satellite imagery, gathered over months, has mapped the creation of a new corridor in northern Gaza that is almost a kilometre in width in some places. It reaches from Gaza’s border with Israel to the edge of the town of Beit Hanoun.
The IDF has bulldozed farmland, orchards and buildings to create the corridor, which allows the IDF some freedom of movement while denying Gazans access to their homes, many of which no longer exist.
Analysts from Forensic Architecture, which have put together the findings, believe it is part of a long-term strategy.
“This is alarming because in the history of Israel’s occupation corridors were used to fragment Palestinian territories, particularly in the West Bank,” says Samaneh Moafi.
“Corridors are actually well-honed colonial techniques of fragmentation and separation. And lastly, what these corridors are doing, is that they will be preventing access, preventing return [of residents].”
Israel already has control of two strategic ‘corridors’ in Gaza: the Netzarim passage bisects the Strip from east to west cutting off northern Gaza from the south, and Israeli forces have occupied the Philadelphi Corridor since May. The Philadelphi runs nine miles along the southern Gaza border with Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea.
For years, Hamas used tunnels into the Egyptian Sinai to smuggle goods and weapons into Gaza.
‘Military strategy is to prevent Hamas re-arming itself’
Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly refused to withdraw Israeli forces from the corridor, fearing Hamas will try and rearm through that route. Hamas has insisted the IDF pulls back.
“The military strategy here is to prevent Hamas re-arming itself and rebuilding its military power,” explained former Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed.
“In that regard, particularly the Philadelphi pass and the Rafah crossing are the most significant critical element: firstly because the fact that Hamas basically either through the tunnels under the Philadelphi road or through Rafah crossing itself, basically was streaming huge amounts of weapons and ammunition to the Gaza Strip.”
Additionally, Mr Netanyahu wants to keep Israeli forces along the Netzarim corridor to prevent Hamas fighters from moving within Gaza.
‘I see Israel acting freely inside the Gaza Strip’
The ongoing presence of the IDF in these areas is one of the main reasons a ceasefire is yet to be agreed.
“What Hamas have been able to do is to move their terror troops from the north to the south to the different neighbourhoods and if you don’t sever the north from the south then you cannot really blow up in a very systematic way that subterranean arena,” assesses former IDF Colonel Miri Eisin.
“As it is right now, I see Israel acting freely inside the Gaza Strip unless there is a real force that can work instead to stop the terror capabilities.”
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Israel could try to keep military presence in Gaza over long period
On Thursday evening, the Israeli Security Cabinet voted in favour of keeping IDF troops in the Philadelphi Corridor, despite some Israeli security officials advising the prime minister a partial withdrawal could be managed.
One theory a number of security veterans have suggested to Sky News is that Israel will try and keep a military presence in Gaza over a long period – some predict months, while others think it could be years.
The working assumption is the IDF would use these positions as staging posts to effectively fight a counter-insurgency, carrying out operations within Gaza as and when deemed necessary, similar to the way the IDF operates in Palestinian-controlled urban areas of the West Bank.
Israel pushed to present ‘day-after’ plan
Ceasefire talks have continued in Cairo and Doha this week, with lower-level mediators in attendance. They have reportedly focused on the finer details of a ceasefire, parking the bigger issue of the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors for future negotiation.
If neither side compromises on the presence of Israeli forces in these corridors, then a ceasefire will remain unreachable.
Israel has been pushed by Washington, and others, to present a ‘day-after’ plan for Gaza’s future, which would determine who will govern it and who will fund the reconstruction. No comprehensive or agreeable plan has been put forward.
Unless, that is, it is already in motion, as suggested by the satellite analysis: a military occupation designed to keep Israel secure, but would see fighting in Gaza continue for a long time to come.