Government plans to boost prison capacity could cost billions more than estimated and fall short by thousands of cell spaces, Whitehall’s spending watchdog has warned.
The National Audit Office (NAO) said current plans to expand prisons are “insufficient to meet future demand”, with a projected shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027.
The costs are expected to be between £9.4bn and £10.1bn – at least £4.2bn more than 2021 estimates – due to rising construction prices, the NAO said.
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government has been freeing thousands of inmates early since September to cut jail overcrowding, but prisons are still expected to reach critical capacity again by July.
A report published on Wednesday blamed the previous Conservative government for failing to ensure policy changes including longer jail sentences and more police matched the space available in prisons.
Campaigners said the findings were “damning” and the spiralling costs are “eye-watering”.
The NAO said the Tory government’s 2021 pledge to create an extra 20,000 cell spaces by building more prisons and temporary wings and refurbishing existing cell blocks likely will not be met until 2031 – five years later than promised.
Labour have promised to continue the previous government’s pledge. But as of September, just one-third of the 20,000 places had been made available, the NAO said.
Delays were down to “unrealistic timelines” and overestimating the ability to get planning permission for half of the six new prisons due to be built.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chairman of the Commons Public Accounts Committee, which scrutinises government spending, said prisons were “already at the brink” and it was “unacceptable” that plans “beset with delays” would not meet future demand.
“The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has been in firefighting mode, prioritising short-term solutions to the crisis. These are not only expensive but also increase risks to prisoners, staff and public safety,” he said.
“The government must pull together a coherent and viable long-term plan for a prison estate that meets demand and delivers value for taxpayers’ money.”
The report added: “Years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put Ministry of Justice and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.”
It said the current expansion plans are “insufficient to meet projected future demand”, with the MoJ “relying” on measures like the sentencing review announced by Labour in October.
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The review will look to “reduce demand for prison places and close the gap between demand and capacity” and “address a projected shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027, should its central population projection be realised”, the report said.
The NAO warned the MoJ “does not have any contingency plans to increase prison capacity as it views it has limited options left to do this”.
Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust, said the findings were “damning” and revealed the “negligence of previous governments and their approach to penal policy” which has left taxpayers facing an “eye-watering bill with no certainty on when the ongoing prison capacity crisis will end”.
Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said the “scathing” report confirms “we cannot build our way out of the prison capacity crisis”, adding: “We have to reduce demand on a system that has been asked to do too much, with too little, for too long.”
Head of the NAO Gareth Davies said: “The government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost-effectiveness of the prison estate.”
Prisons Minister Lord Timpson said: “This report lays bare the litany of failures which brought our prison system to the brink. This not only risked public safety but added billions in extra costs to taxpayers.
“We have already taken immediate action to address the crowding chaos engulfing our jails and will now focus on improving conditions in the long term. This includes shortly publishing a 10-year prison capacity strategy to put our jails on a sustainable footing.”